Air Travel Forecast to 2030: The Recovery and the Carbon Challenge

Originally launched in May 2020, our air traffic forecast was developed to address the uncertainties posed by the pandemic. It has since expanded to encompass a broader range of influences, including macroeconomic growth, levels of disposable income, and carbon mitigation costs. Now projected to the end of the decade, this forecast is updated regularly with the latest available data.

Here is the outlook as of the close of the third quarter of 2024:

Annual air travel demand remains on course to exceed 2019 levels this year, measured by revenue passenger kilometers (RPK)—the metric of paying passengers multiplied by total distance traveled. Demand for the second quarter surpassed expectations, reaching 106% of 2019 figures by July. By 2030, our base scenario anticipates global RPK will reach 11.7 trillion, a 39% increase over 2019 levels. Additionally, specific factors are influencing forecasts for various regions and countries:

• North America: An improved macroeconomic outlook has increased the demand forecast for North American intraregional travel by 2 percentage points from last quarter, representing a $2 billion revenue boost at current yield rates.

• Europe: Intraregional travel demand in Europe rose approximately 2 percentage points, translating to more than $1.5 billion in additional revenue, with growth driven primarily by the UK, Germany, and Italy.

• Asia: Intraregional demand in Asia is projected to see strong growth, rising 57% from 2019 to 2030.

We estimate that current decarbonization measures in the airline industry will lead to a net 3.7% rise in global CO2 emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. This forecast assumes a 27% reduction in CO2 emissions per RPK, due to fleet renewal and sustainable aviation fuel adoption, offset by a 39% increase in global RPK. For the industry to hold emissions at 2019 levels by 2030, an additional carbon tax equivalent to 7% of average ticket prices worldwide would be required.

European destinations are expected to remain popular for international short-haul travel, with Spain projected to lead, handling 62 million inbound short-haul visitors annually by 2030. The UK and Italy are likely to follow in the second and third positions, respectively.

For long-haul inbound travel, the US, UK, and Thailand are expected to hold the top three spots. By 2030, the US is forecasted to reach 38 million annual long-haul visitors, surpassing the combined total of the UK (15 million) and Thailand (12 million).

This market outlook is based on external data and our independent analysis. It is intended to serve as a directional guide and not as a definitive forecast or guarantee of future performance. No liability is accepted by any individual, company, or its representatives for errors or omissions in this analysis.